We will combine national and local observations this month.
First, the National Association of Home Builders runs a survey to judge their respondents’ confidence in general market condition. If the confidence scores is above 50, you may assume that there is a general sense of confidence in the market for new-construction single-family homes. Their latest report hit a confidence score of 67. We can infer that rising input-costs, both material and labor, have not outpaced the respondent’s view of the market for their homes. (Or else, some builders are getting comfortable with slimmer margins. Or both.) I see this as a favorable return, given the headwinds of cost and increasing mortgage rates.
Second, Calculated Risk points to housing economist Tom Lawler’s read on a particular item in the existing-home market. Specifically, on a national-basis, real-estate investors released ~294k single-family rentals back into the market on a YoY basis. These are net numbers on homes that were once held for rent, now sold. Can you imagine our national inventory numbers if you pulled this pool out over the course of 2018?
Third, local MLS data showed July’s Months of Inventory at 2.8 across the market spectrum, and at 9.0 in the above-$400k luxury space. This is roughly equal with July 2017, despite some increases in Average and Median Sold prices.
Finally, our Movers-moving number was pegged at a respectable 165 for July. See attached.