What do we know about the general trend of housing to close out 2019? In a tweet thread Nobel-laureate economist and NYT commentator Paul Krugman takes on an argument that housing price gains relates primarily to low mortgage rates. He points out a basic economic truth, a constraint to supply weighs on prices. (Bill McBride notes that inventory remains remarkably low at YE2019.) Housing economist Odeta Kushi highlights the tailwinds for housing looking into 2020 – the aforementioned low rates, a good economy, and favorable buyer demographics. So, knowing that demographics generally don’t pivot and the general expectation is that rates will remain stable through the year, unless we see an economic shock or a glut of new housing, I think we are in for a year like we just had – price gains, below 6 Months of Inventory, and similar sales volume.
The year ended on a high note in our Mover’s Moving index with 162 identified transactions. Maybe we too are getting in on the good weather for housing starts. See attached.