Early year predictions:

  1. We will continue to experience an existing home inventory constriction through 2020.
  2. We will experience an upsurge in subdivision plats in advance of the City’s adoption of an Impact Fee system.
  3. We will see moderate residential refinance activity despite lower than (already low) mortgage rates through late fall.

Looking at January MLS data, we see the inventory constrictions in both Gross and MOI indicators (1058 units vs 1256 in 01/19; 3.8 MOI vs 4.4 in 01/19.) The same exists in the luxury space (over $500k – 90 units vs 113 in 01/19; 9.0 MOI vs 10.3 in 01/19). Interestingly, we saw a reduction in the Average Sold Price ($169k vs $174k in 01/19), despite an increase in the Average Sold Price per SF ($85 vs $73 in 01/19)

Our Movers Moving Index turned in a strong January number at 135 transactions. See attached.