On several fronts, the housing market has been unusual through 2020. We’ve discussed Months-of-Inventory, which remain very low, and building permits. We’ve discussed the effect of historically low interest rates for home mortgages. Look at the daily legal filings and as often as not you see Deed of Trust filings outnumbering Warranty Deed filings – a rough approximation for the refi market.
But I’d like to drop a quick note about how different the commercial space has been. One source reported that 2020Q4 loan originations in the commercial and multifamily space was down 18%. That is a lot. Credit markets know we need houses, but are not leaning in to commercial spaces in any category with any zeal.
Our Mover’s Moving index reflects coming spring activity, with 186 transactions in January. That’s a good thing.