I’ve written about how this housing expansion feels different from past expansions. I read a post today that might explain that feeling. While I’ve pointed at the interplay of input costs and labor, the post’s charts, and the corresponding analysis, posit that there is an elasticity gap in housing this time around. Its explanation is that the easy land for housing has already been absorbed. While they point to coastal markets, I wonder if we feel a similar effect here in West Texas. We have plenty of land – but much of it feels far away.

Looking to MLS data for July 2019, we see a reduction Months of Inventory down to 2.2 (vs. 2.6 July18; 1146 current listings vs. 1379 July18). This is on even YoY unit sales (520 current vs. 521 July18). That contraction also shows up in Average Sales Price ($201k vs. $192k July18) and Average Price per SF ($92 vs. $85 July18).

Our Movers-Moving Index showed a strong summer number, coming in at 154 units. See attached.