May gives us mixed signals. We know that nationally, home builders are viewing the moment with confidence. We know from local MLS data that we are climbing the seasonal wave towards our usual Summer peak. But we also know that YoY May gave us a decrease of 2.7% in sales (512 vs 526 May’18). Inventory is down 101 units this May as well (1164 vs 1265 May’18). As I’ve already written, some production costs are down, rates are favorable, but we just aren’t seeing a market on fire like we could.
Our Mover’s Moving index gives us a very strong 161 transactions, consistent with Spring/Summer expectations. See attached. Maybe June will give a clearer picture, and a resounding happy one.