The second chart at this link is a both a bit dated (it’s from late April) and evergreen. I keep thinking about it. It follows a 20-year period (so don’t get too tied up in its implications on today’s inflation.) But compare the ratio of red-and-orange (houses under $200k) to the ratio of blue-and-purple (houses over $300k) over that period. The middle stripe (yellow; houses in the $200k range) has been pretty regular in terms of marketshare over time. I would posit that the relatively low inflation rates over that period, together with the relatively low rate of wage growth over the period are reflected here in an testament to the overall increase in the burden of housing expense on household budgets.

Locally, we saw a Mover’s Moving Index of 202 in May 2021 – right in line with seasonal expectations. That number is pretty solid, in light of the input costs we’ve discussed and very low Months-of-Inventory numbers and mortgage rates.