“I suspect you have a feeling in your gut about where we are this month. The MLS data bears that feeling out. Year over Year, we went from inventory of 665 to 1213 and sales of 493 to 381. That yields a YoY change in Months of Inventory from 1.3 to 3.2. That’s what doubling (or even tripling) mortgages rates will do. And while 3.2 MOI looks huge compared to the last 24 months, it remains on the Seller’s side of a balanced market. Thus, YoY we are still $27k over the average existing home price this time last year ($247 vs. $274).
“Our Mover’s Moving Index still shows a healthy 236 transactions in October, but there are rumblings that the national volume builders that were flirting in our market may be retreating – at least temporarily.”